Do Rising Gas Prices Increase Cycling?
12:04 pm, by tricky coyotePeople have lately been fond of saying that rising gas prices will be good for Xtracycle business. We did in fact have a woman call last year to say she was on a Peak Oil site and it recommended buying a bike so she was buying a bike. Peak Oil and rising gas prices aren’t exactly the same thing (at least for the moment), but they certainly drive eachother, at least in our worrying minds. That was the only sale I know of directly related to the gas price issue. But three bucks a gallon might just not be enough.
I read a consumer study in the Fall that shows prices above $4/gallon would drive (hee hee) 50% of people to “walk, bike or use other forms of transportation,” not including public transit and carpooling, which the study accounts for separately. Another more detailed study done recently analyzes transportation elasticities, basically, how a range of factors, including the price of gas, influence transportation behavior.
The following illustrates the lifestyle changes consumers will make based on the price per gallon of gas.
| 2.50/gal | $3.00/gal | $3.50/gal | $4.00/gal | $5.00/gal | |
| Drive Your Most Fuel Efficient Vehicle | 26% | 35% | 44% | 50% | 57% |
| Immediately Purchase a More Fuel Efficient Vehicle | 17% | 27% | 40% | 54% | 71% |
| Reduce Overall Driving | 22% | 34% | 47% | 56% | 65% |
| Walk/Bike More and Other Forms of Transportation | 13% | 24% | 38% | 49% | 64% |
| Use Public Transportation | 8% | 16% | 26% | 40% | 59% |
| Carpool | 15% | 25% | 38% | 49% | 66% |
Based on the Percentage of Consumers Owning at Least One Vehicle
Numbers are cumulative. Study by GFK NOP.
What neither of these studies show, and perhaps what is unknowable, is how the psychological impact of Peak Oil scarcity, both actual and prophesied, will affect cycling. I can imagine a tipping point of sorts, where the wealth of good reasons suddenly become overwhelming and the Mass goes Critical.
April 26th, 2006 at 2:24 pm
Interesting. Of course, what people say they’ll do isn’t a reliable indicator. I’m also wary of representing bicycling as a response to hardship rather than as a creative, restorative project, a joyful end in itself that happens to fulfill practical daily needs. So I’m for talking up the “bicycle lifestyle” as you do, and letting people fretting about gas connect the dots.
April 26th, 2006 at 3:57 pm
[...] The Pleasant Revolution has some thoughts and links on pertol price tipping points as it relates to cycling. It’s based on American attitudes, but still very useful to those interested in looking out for changes in consumer sentiment. What neither of these studies show, and perhaps what is unknowable, is how the psychological impact of Peak Oil scarcity, both actual and prophesied, will affect cycling. I can imagine a tipping point of sorts, where the wealth of good reasons suddenly become overwhelming and the Mass goes Critical. [...]
April 27th, 2006 at 10:59 am
Amen, brother!
April 27th, 2006 at 11:29 am
In the UK at the moment, petrol is about £0.90 for one litre, which is about $6 a gallon. In my small home town (population 97,000, 4 mile diameter, relatively flat), only 1% of journeys are made by bike…
April 28th, 2006 at 11:23 am
Another caveat is that this is a snapshot of how people feel today. But people adjust to inflation, especially if it’s overall cost of living. By the time it gets to $5, maybe “$5 will be the new $3″, so to speak. I guess it kind of depends on how quickly or slowly it happens, and thus how quickly people can adjust to it.
The whole scare about peak oil is the speed at which it could happen. The more quickly, the more people are hurt.
May 2nd, 2006 at 1:04 pm
Wouldn’t it be great? Unfortunately, Americans conceive of bikes as toys for children, not adult transportation. Even the majority of serious riders see the bike as a tool for recreation or fitness. Travel by car or public transportation would have to be almost impossible for John and Jane Doe to even consider practical bicycle use. What a shame.
May 5th, 2006 at 6:16 am
When it hit $3 a gallon here, “friends” stopped making fun of us riding our bikes everywhere. The last time we filled up our car was when it was 2.36.
We are fortunate to live in a very bike friendly town. We can get pretty much everywhere on our electras